Two reports “Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation”, Special Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2012) henceforth referred to as Managing (see NYTimes, July 10 editorial, “Heating Up) and “The Impact of Climate Change on the Hurricane Damages in the United States” (R. Mendelsohn, K. Emanuel, S. Chonabayashi, The World Bank, Finance Economics and Urban Department, Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery, 2011) henceforth referred to as Impact portend possible dire consequences of climate change. While the quality and quantity of climate change may be debatable the risks that this change foreshadows cannot be ignored. Both reports show the need for a unified long term program to explore possibilities for diminishing the devastating consequences of tropical cyclone activity. It is the recommendation in this application and applicant's parent application, now issued as U.S. Pat. No. 8,262,314 (“Patent”), that the techniques proposed by applicant be part of the exploratory process.
Impact is a wide ranging comprehensive report based on known statistics and extensive modeling of hurricane activity in the United States. Both Impact & Managing point out that for example a Katrina is an example of a rare event, as are many extreme natural disasters, and therefore one cannot draw convincing predictions from a history of such events. But if climate change is indeed occurring, then increased incidence of such rare events is a compelling consequence.
Intense cyclonic events are global phenomena and in the United States account on average for about $10 billion/year cost in damages (Impact, 2011). In the absence of climate change, and purely on the basis of income and population growth by the year 2100 the forecast is this will rise to between $27 billion/year and $55 billion/year (Impact, 2011).
If climate change predictions are incorporated the yearly destructive costs are expected to lie between $70 billion and $120 billion by the year 2100. Additional effects such as sea level rise have not been factored into these calculations (Impact, 2011).
The world's oceans and seas typically have temperature versus depth profiles that can be characterized generally as shown in FIG. 1. For example, the upper layer is usually at a uniform temperature as a result of wind and wave mixing. The temperature is determined by the intensity and duration of solar radiation, as well as the efficiency of wind driven surface mixing. Although the depth of the upper layer varies depending on the season, a nominal depth for the upper layer is approximately 20-25 meters. Deeper water is usually significantly colder, approximately 10° C. colder than the upper layer. The transition between upper and lower layers is referred to as the thermocline. The thermocline has a nominal thickness of approximately 20 meters. Although these dimensions vary depending on the time of year and geographic location, the numbers presented are for illustrative purposes.
It is well-known that hurricanes that travel to North America originate from tropical storms that are spawned in the tropical waters of the eastern Atlantic, near the Western coast of Africa. It also is understood that the originating tropical storms, and the hurricanes which develop from them, are fueled by the energy content of the warm, upper layers of the ocean. There is a strong correlation between the frequency and strength of such storms and the energy content of those upper, heated layers of the ocean.
Accordingly, decreasing the temperature of this upper layer of ocean water could diminish the occurrence and intensity of tropical storms. In addition, decreasing the temperature of the upper, warmer layer of ocean in the path of a hurricane could (1) diminish, or quench, the strength of a hurricane; or (2) alter the course of a hurricane.
U.S. Pat. Nos. 4,470,544 and 5,492,274 disclose methods for slowly mixing layers of sea water to achieve greater rainfall in the Mediterranean basin. Slowly mixing layers of a large body of water increases the potential solar energy captured by the water, and increases the intensity of storms fueled by the energy content of the water. To diminish the strength of a hurricane or alter its course, however, rapid mixing of ocean layers is required.